The New York Times Siena College poll that just came out spells some trouble for Kamala Harris, as it finds that her opponent, Donald Trump, is ahead nationally. Now, look, we all knew that there was going to be a bit of a honeymoon period [00:00:15] with Kamala Harris being the new Democratic nominee. It does appear that some of that has faded, and it does appear that some of that is being reflected in this polling. Now, when it comes to national polling, keep in mind that the Democrat would have to win by five points in order to win the Electoral College. [00:00:33] But in this case, with this one poll, you see that Kamala Harris is, not ahead. Okay. So Donald Trump is ahead 48% to Kamala Harris, 47%. I should note that The New York Times has a margin of error [00:00:51] of plus or minus three points. And we should also take a look at how this particular poll compares to others. Right. Because it's not just about one poll. One poll could be an outlier. But let's look at the average of polling. Let's see what the other polls say. So luckily, the New York Times provided that information for us. [00:01:09] And as you can see here, the average of polls shows Harris up nationally by two points. It's still not enough to win the Electoral College, but it is obviously better than the New York Times poll showing Trump winning by a few points. [00:01:25] Now, the Ipsos poll is the most Harris friendly with her leading by six points, but that's the only one that shows her with a big enough lead. All of the others have Harris leading by just one point. Making matters worse, we're about to get into the details about how they're [00:01:40] performing in the swing states. And remember, at the end of the day, the election is decided by these battleground states. Before we get to that, Jake. Thoughts? - Yeah. - Hey, don't scroll away. Come back, come back. Because before the video continues, we just want to urge you to lend your support to TYT. [00:01:57] You power our honest reporting. You do it at tight.com/team and we love you for it. First thing is is it real. So they did oversample Republicans a little bit. So it might be a little bit worse in this New York Times poll than the average. [00:02:14] Now, it might be it is worse than the average. So keep that in mind. Having said that, it's definitely real. Why is it real overall? Because other polls are showing deterioration in the swing states for Kamala Harris. So when you have all those polls headed in the same direction, [00:02:30] that's when you know it's real. So you can tell yourself pretty little eyes on both Republicans and Democrats do it. Whenever you're down in the polls. You say the polls aren't real. And we have shown you now endless times where both sides have done it, depending on whether they were losing or winning in the polls. But it's really important that you be honest with yourself. [00:02:46] Otherwise you can't course correct and then you'll lose. So after we show you the swing state problems, I want to come back and explain to you why Kamala Harris surged. There's very clear reasons why and why she's now losing that momentum. I think there's also equally clear reasons why she's losing the momentum. [00:03:04] So the swing states do spell a little bit of trouble for Kamala Harris as well. And there is a statistical tie, according to the New York Times Siena College polling here in the following states, there's Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, [00:03:21] Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And so in all of those states, it is a statistical tie. So in some of them, they're completely tied. In some of these states, Trump might lead by one point. In others Harris might lead by one point. But at the end of the day, when you consider the margin of error for [00:03:39] this poll, they are in a statistical tie. Now, this is the first major poll showing Kamala slipping a little in the polls since she became the nominee following Biden dropping out. And this means that the stakes are obviously high for Kamala Harris [00:03:55] in the presidential debate that will take place this week. So, look, we should talk also about what the voters are saying, what the voters told pollsters about how they're feeling about the two different candidates. So the survey found that 28% of likely voters say that they felt they [00:04:13] needed to know more about Kamala Harris, while only 9% said that they needed to know more about Trump. So this could actually be a silver lining for Harris, or at least an opportunity for growth for Harris, because most voters feel that they already know enough about Trump. [00:04:30] So they've made up their minds about Donald Trump. Whereas, you know, Harris could make some leeway with voters. You know, the 28% who feel like they don't know enough about her to make a decision yet. So that's good news, right? A lot of people out there who haven't made up their minds yet [00:04:45] are still open minded to Harris, and she could definitely persuade them. And that's why I think that this polling is important for her to take seriously. Now, 5% of likely voters surveyed said that they're undecided. In addition to that, 28%, by the way, who say that they don't know enough [00:05:01] about Harris, 5% of likely voters surveyed said that they're undecided and did not lean toward either major party candidate. And those are really the people who are going to decide the election at the end of the day. Harris held on to some of the gains that she made with key groups [00:05:18] that Biden was slipping with, including women, young voters and Latino voters. However, and this is really interesting, even Kamala Harris is now struggling to build a solid lead with Latino voters. It appears that Donald Trump has made some significant gains gains with Latinos. [00:05:36] Now, the respondents also say that they trust Trump more on specific issues like the economy and immigration, whereas voters trust Harris. More on topics like saving our democracy and abortion. [00:05:52] And I do want to give you some quotes as well. 47% of likely voters viewed Harris as too liberal, compared with 32% who say that Trump is too conservative. More than 60% of likely voters said the next president should represent a [00:06:07] major change from Biden, but only 25% said that vice president or the vice president, meaning Kamala Harris represented that change, while 53% said that Trump, the former president, did. Yeah, that's the key one. So I want to focus on that. So why did Kamala Harris surge in the beginning? [00:06:25] Number one, she looked like the change candidate all of a sudden out of nowhere, because everybody was sick of Biden and Trump and they couldn't wait for anyone that wasn't Biden or Trump. Kamala Harris comes in and they're like, great change, okay? And she surges. So that's point one. Then she picked Tim Walz. And Tim Walz is not a standard politician. [00:06:44] He's more of a folksy regular guy and more of a populist, progressive, etc. In an economic way that actually delivered for the average voter in Minnesota. So they're like, okay, that's good. That's the second reason. Then she comes up with an economically populist agenda and people like it. [00:07:02] They're like, oh, okay, they're going to she's going to check the big corporations that are price gouging us. She's going to do something about housing prices that are out of control. So boom, she surges And whereas Biden was down by about 5 in 1 of the polls, he's down by eight. [00:07:17] She takes the lead and goes all the way up to up three and a half points. Now she's been losing that lead ever since. So what changed? A couple of things. Number one they stopped doing all media. Oh that's so dumb. That's millions and eventually hundreds of millions of dollars in free media. [00:07:35] Why don't you go and make your case? And if you say no, both Harris and Walz are so incompetent that if they are interviewed, they can't make their own case. Well, then you're sending a giant message of weakness, and then you're forcing all of the media to talk about how you won't talk to them [00:07:55] because they get obsessed with that. Right? And they're right to. Then you need to be challenged and questioned if you're going to be president of the United States. So now you've got a giant negative story just sitting there for no reason, self-inflicted harm. It's insanity. Right. And then what did you do now? [00:08:12] CNBC anchors start yelling at you. We've been covering that on the show the last couple of weeks. She starts retracting some of her our policies. Disaster. Now we're really. What are you doing? And finally, on the issue of change, the most important issue there [00:08:28] is are you if you're the change candidate, you're going to win. If you're the status quo candidate, you're going to lose. So, Anna, just read you 60% of voters, it's actually 61, of likely voters. The next said the next president should represent [00:08:44] a major change from Biden right now. Let me read you the devastating details on how where Kamala and Trump lie on that. So this is still from the New York Times. Obviously, only 40% of likely voters said Miss Harris represented change, while [00:08:59] 55% said she represented more of the same. That's devastating. Mr. Trump, in contrast, was seen as representing change by 61% of voters, while only 34% said he was more of the same. [00:09:14] He's got a huge advantage now as the change candidate, so she has to take that mantle, but I'm not sure she realizes it because in Democratic Party circles, they think the status quo is great if you're the defender of the status quo. [00:09:32] America is not going to vote for you. You had it. You had it as the change candidate for that month. You've got to go back to that and win that mantle. If Trump is seen as the change candidate. He's going to win this election. Final thing I'll leave you with I thought that this quote was really interesting. [00:09:50] It's from a 31 year old vaccine scientist in Cambridge, Massachusetts. This is an individual who has already committed to voting for Kamala Harris. His name is Matthew Tucker, but he says this in regard to the Democratic Party and whether he feels confident that Kamala Harris is going to respond [00:10:10] or react to the immigration appropriately. He says it's not like I'd lay it all on her, meaning the problems at the border, but I'm not sure that I heard enough about her trying to deal with that. And I would like to hear more from Democrats or Republicans on more [00:10:26] creative solutions to that problem, rather than just putting up walls. Now, again, this is a Democratic voter who's already committed to voting for Kamala Harris. It's not about Democrats who are, you know, Partizans. And they're going to vote for the Democrat no matter what. At the end of the day, it comes down to those independent swing voters [00:10:45] who might agree with him on that issue, and they want to see more from Kamala Harris in regard to what her solutions are, not just on immigration, but other issues as well. And so that kind of goes to your point, Jake. It's important for her to do more of these interviews and to differentiate herself from Joe Biden. [00:11:01] And I know that that's a difficult thing to do because she doesn't want to disrespect Biden. Who cares? Disrespect him? I know. - I mean. - Are you crazy? You're worried about this. Joe Biden is an anchor tied around her legs, and you're worried, oh, I might be impolite to him. Who cares when the goddamn election? [00:11:17] So, look, guys, the debate tomorrow night, obviously, we're going to cover. You know, we always cover it. We're going to give you analysis, but you could actually watch it. Also on tight.com/debate. We're going to embed the debate and we're going to show you pre and post debate analysis. Now the reason why I mentioned that is because it's critical. [00:11:34] And she's got to turn around. And I don't know if she's gotten the message. And so last point here is the other thing that people want is strength from their leaders. So when you're hiding from the press, you look weak. And when you're flip flopping on your positions, you look weak. [00:11:52] Now Trump does it, but he does it in a weird aggro way where he'll say one thing and like, oh, I definitely won the election. Terrible. And then he'd go do an interview and be like, I lost the election. I won the election. He'll say two different things, but he'll say both of them while screaming [00:12:08] and you might say, oh, he's unhinged and crazy, etc. But at least he has the outward appearance to some voters of being strong. He isn't, but he has that appearance when you're like, oh, I don't want to get interviewed. Oh my God, that looks so weak. You need to go out there and make your case say, [00:12:24] this is why I'm going to deliver. This is what I'm going to do for you If you're just sitting there doing canned speeches for rallies that you're not going to win this race. You know what the problem is, guys? This is she kept the Biden campaign team and they're an anchor wrapped around the entire Democratic Party. [00:12:44] And it's their dumbass strategy. And this is sourced. I've read it now in several articles. The old Biden team is like, don't talk to the press. The press might be slightly mean to you. Hide from them for the entire campaign. All right. [00:13:00] Well, if you listen to that, it's a guaranteed loss. Thanks for watching The Young Turks really appreciate it. Another way to show support is through YouTube memberships. You'll get to interact with us more. There's live chat emojis, badges. You've got emojis of me Anna John Jr. So those are super fun. [00:13:19] But you also get playback of our exclusive member only shows and specials right after they air So all of that, all you got to do is click that join button right underneath the video. Thank you.